An updated Electoral College projection from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts that Hillary Clinton will demolish Donald Trump in the general election this fall.
The website, which is run by University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has the presumptive Democratic nominee beating Trump by a 347-191 electoral vote margin.
What’s more telling is that all of the normal toss-up states – Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, etc. – have been moved into the “Lean Democratic” column, leaving Trump no mathematical way to make up the difference unless there is a sizable shift in public opinion.
Crystal Ball‘s prediction comes as Trump’s national poll numbers continue to collapse. Two polls out on Sunday gave the former secretary of state leads of between five and 12 points nationally over the presumptive Republican nominee. According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton now leads the spray-tanned billionaire by an average of almost seven points nationally – her largest lead over Trump since he clinched the GOP nomination.
On this day in the 2012 campaign, Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by three points, very close to his eventual margin of victory.
Another troubling sign for Trump is two red-state polls that came out today showing him beating Clinton by much smaller margins than the previous GOP nominee.
In Texas, for example, Trump only leads Clinton by single digits, according to a new survey. Romney clobbered Obama there by 16 points in 2012. In Arkansas, where the 2012 GOP nominee beat the current president by 24 points, Trump only leads Clinton by 11.
These states are likely to remain in the red column, but the dwindling margins may be a sign that Trump will also underperform previous Republican nominees both nationally and in the all-important battleground states.
If this is the case, the eventual Electoral College map could closely resemble Larry Sabato’s latest projection – a thought that should have the Trump campaign panicking.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.