Sen. Scott Brown’s personal attacks are getting him nowhere against Elizabeth Warren, as the Democrat continues to lead the Massachusetts Senate race 50%-45%.
The latest Western New England University Polling Institute survey found that the Warren/Brown debates haven’t changed much of anything, as the Democratic challenger continues to lead the incumbent 50%-45%. In the previous survey, Warren led by 6 points, 50%-44%. Even though respondents gave Brown a 55% job approval rating, and he holds a large lead with Independents, the incumbent Republican is still losing.
The reason why Brown is losing is because he has a 56% unfavorable rating with Democrats. The senator also has a job approval rating with women (46%) that is nine points lower than his overall job approval rating. Warren’s approval rating with women is 59%.
Scott Brown’s biggest problem is that he is a Republican running in a state where President Obama is popular, and Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to 1. The numbers suggest that voters don’t dislike Brown, and against any other opponent he would probably have no trouble being reelected, but so far Warren is proving herself to be a huge challenge to the incumbent.
Elizabeth Warren has shown herself to be a highly formidable candidate, and one of the best Democrats on the ballot in any race in this country. Both candidates have seen their negative ratings go up, but Warren has a natural appeal to the majority of Democrats, and her overwhelming support with women is forming a coalition that Brown is having a difficult time overcoming.
Sen. Brown may find himself in the position of winning by large numbers with Republicans and Independents, but still losing the election. The candidates have now debated each other twice, and Brown has chosen to use the same attacks against Warren’s character in each debate that don’t seem to be getting him anywhere.
Brown won his seat in 2010 by a margin of 52%-47%, with 65% support from Independents. Sen. Brown’s campaigning on his bipartisan nature has gotten 62% support from Independents so far. The biggest hurdle Brown faces is that he is not running against the aloof and unlikable Martha Coakley this time.
Elizabeth Warren’s campaign has studied Scott Brown’s record, and have been very successful at targeting all of his votes where he sided with his own party. Warren’s line that Massachusetts needs a senator that is going to stand with them all of the time has been very effective. She scored big points in the second debate by pointing out that what Scott Brown is telling the voters in Massachusetts is not the same thing that he is telling Republicans around the country.
Poll after poll has revealed that Elizabeth Warren is maintaining a roughly five point lead. With two debates and less than a month to go, Scott Brown is spinning his wheels trying to figure out how to beat a strong Democrat in a deeply blue state.
If Warren can maintain her lead for a few more weeks, she will be in an excellent position to be elected to the United States Senate.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association